Free · No email · Updated 2026 (EIA + NREL data)
Should I get solar?
3 inputs, 30 seconds. Get state-specific break-even math BEFORE you let an installer pitch you. Built on 2026 EIA electricity rates, NREL peak-sun data, and state-by-state net-metering rules — including the CA NEM 3.0 haircut and AZ RCP.
Reviewed 2026-06-02 by the HavenCostGuide editorial desk · Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) residential rates, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) PVWatts peak-sun data, DSIRE state incentive database, and current state PUC net-metering orders.
Worth evaluating — but cost-shop hard
Break-even 8-12 years. The math works but tight. Specific installer choice + system sizing optimization can swing your payback by 2-3 years either direction. Get 3 quotes and verify your roof has 12+ years of remaining life.
Solar economics breakdown
Generated by HavenCostGuide · 2026 EIA + NREL solar readiness methodology · TX state buyback ratio applied · havencostguide.com/should-i-get-solar-calculator
Bring this to your installer meeting
Download a branded one-page readiness summary. Installer reps anchor harder on a written third-party estimate.
Next step
Run the full cost calculator → exact 2026 quote range
System sizing, equipment tier, installer markup, and state rebates — the full $22-35K (gross) install math broken down line-by-line.
How to pay for it
Get pre-qualified for a HELOC to fund this →
A 15-year HELOC at 8-9% APR turns a $16K net-of-credit install into a payment that runs $140-$240/month — typically less than your current electric bill. Compare HELOC, home-equity loan, and PACE / solar-loan options side-by-side in our financing calculator. Soft-pull rate checks, no hard inquiry until you actually apply.
See where TX ranks
2026 Solar Payback by State — all 50 ranked →
Hawaii pays back in 3.1 years; North Dakota takes 11.5. Compare your state’s electric rate, sun hours, and buyback ratio against the full national field.
Bookmark for the next time an installer knocks → pin our verdict math before you take the call.
Pin thisThe solar industry's pitch is uniform — 'free money, 7-year payback, you'd be crazy not to.' But the actual 2026 math varies wildly by state because three independent factors compound: your local electricity rate (high-rate CA squeezes more $/kWh saved out of every panel), your peak-sun-hours (high-sun AZ produces more kWh per kW installed), and your state's net-metering tariff (CA NEM 3.0 cuts export credits ~75% vs FL's still-intact 1:1 retail). This calculator runs all three from EIA + NREL + state PUC filings so you can gate the decision BEFORE letting an installer rep through your door.
How this calculator works
- Pull your monthly bill — Use your 12-month rolling average. AC-heavy states (FL/AZ/TX) should weight toward summer months — those are when solar offsets the highest-rate consumption.
- Pick your state honestly — State choice swings break-even by 3-5 years. The combination of electricity rate + sun hours + buyback ratio is uniquely yours — don't generalize from a friend's Texas payback to your Washington decision.
- Assess roof condition — Suitable = south-facing, <12yr old, mostly unshaded. Good = partial issues (−8% production). Unsuitable = address those issues BEFORE solar. Installers will solar a bad roof if you let them; you'll regret it.
- Read the verdict tier — Green Light (≤8yr break-even) is a slam-dunk. Worth Evaluating (8-12yr) means proceed but cost-shop. Marginal (12-16yr) means only if energy independence values rank high. Skip (>16yr) means address energy efficiency first.
- Confirm with 3 quotes if green — Same zip code, same system size — installer pricing varies 20-40%. Never sign the first quote. National brands ('SunRun', 'Sunnova') are often 25-40% more expensive than reputable local installers offering identical hardware.
When to use this vs. skip it
Installer rep is coming over
Run the gate-check before the meeting. If you're Skip-tier, save 2 hours. If you're Green Light, you walk in knowing the rep's pitch numbers should match ours.
Considering solar as part of a refi
Lenders often bundle solar loans into cash-out refis at attractive rates. Run the math first — a 14-year break-even doesn't get better just because the financing terms are nice.
Pre-PV-rebate-deadline rush
Several states sunset their solar incentives in 2026-2028. If you're Green Light, the timing question matters. If you're Skip, the rebate sunset doesn't change your math.
Just bought a high-bill home
$300+/mo homes in mid-to-high sun states almost always pencil. Our calculator quickly confirms whether your specific zip + roof match the pattern.
Friend or neighbor just installed solar
Their break-even ≠ yours. Different bill, different roof, different state means radically different payback. Get YOUR number from our calculator before social-proof FOMO kicks in.
Common mistakes homeowners make
- ×Trusting the installer's 'we calculated your payback at 6 years' line — that calculation almost always uses 5% annual utility-rate inflation and skips panel degradation. Real 2026 payback for the typical home is 9-13 years, not 6.
- ×Ignoring the post-NEM tariff reality in CA / AZ / NV / HI — installers in those states will quote pre-NEM economics if you let them. Verify your local export rate in writing before signing.
- ×Buying 'instant maturity' big systems for future EV / heat pump load. The federal tax credit + breakeven math only works on systems sized to current consumption. Right-size now; expand later if needed.
- ×Skipping the roof age check. If your roof needs replacement within 8 years, you'll pay $3-5K to detach + re-mount panels — eating your first decade of solar savings. Replace the roof first, then solar.
- ×Signing a PPA / lease without doing the OWN math. Leases save you upfront cost but cap savings at 10-20% of grid rates. Over 25 years, owning typically pays 2-3× a lease.
Last updated · Reviewed by the HavenCostGuide methodology desk